The 7 Strategic Shifts in the Way Criminals Abuse Cyber World

It is very difficult to control the free flow of information through the various technology channels available today. The more you put curbs on one medium the more quickly does some other channel crop up to ping your efforts. For instance, SMSes are regularly banned for security reasons but what about social apps such as Whatsapp? To coordinate efforts to stop crime it is important to understand how the criminals adapt themselves to technological advancements.

1. The synergy and tech adoption amongst bad guys is more than the good guys. The criminals and terrorists of this world are the first to adopt new tech and put it to lethal use.

2. There is escalation of skillsets and resources & strategic intent on part of criminals to use technology to cause maximum devastation. Organised criminal gangs have used ERP much before companies started using it. Also, cyber warfare has evolved from causing mere harassment to the target to economic espionage by huge organisations (good or bad) and even countries. Non state players (supported by states) are getting encouragement and state level resources have been put into this game by countries across the globe. PRISM is just one example, China has its own version in the fray.

3. Cyber attacks in future will be coordinated and synchronised and in many cases stay undetected through longer periods of gestation. For instance, DoS and spreading of misinformation to vitiate natural calamities. Most sophisticated attacks are not those which break the system but degrade the system.

4. Shifting of the GTI (ground of tactical importance, eg Tiger Hill in Kargil war) - There is a shift of this ground from physical space to psychological space in mind. The metrics for a terrorist attack are shifting from the damage they cause to the lasting impact it leaves on the victims and the nation's minds.

5. Previously, the strategy was 'terrorist attacks supported by information campaigns'. Now the criminals have put in place- 'strategic information campaigns supported by terrorist operations'. Information campaigns have become the center of gravity. Handheld video cameras, identity software and social media platforms are being exploited to glorify isolated incidents such as the Iraqi rebels' beheading of 3 westerners in recent times.

6. The use of Web 2.0 to recruit train and even attack is conveniently put in a 20 min video. In 2008, Ayman al Zawahiri interacted with several million of potential recruits online. Again, in Nov 2009, Nidal Hasan, a serving US armyman shot 13 of his fellow soldiers, after a thorough indoctrination completely through email.

7. Another key impact is 'Depleting the 'Speed of Trust' amongst civilised societies and organisations. The communication between security agencies, govt, and even companies is delayed due to massive security checks built in place. Previously, there was an element of trust between them that has been intruded upon. Imagine the impact of regular security frisks at innocuous places such as malls on the minds of young kids. This is what the criminals have been able to achieve through malicious use of tech.

Studies show that multiple exposures to false information, interspersed with facts, shape beliefs that are completely untrue. Such opinion shaping tools shall be aggressively used in future to spreads insidious allusions about individuals, organisations, policies or even undermine the moral of an entire nation by spreading a sense of dismay and cynicism. In the Twitter era, readers seldom ascertain the authenticity of information. Human brain is incapable of verifying information by itself.

The Way Ahead

1. India is poised to be one of the largest users of eGov projects and mobile communication devices. There is an immediate need to train millions of users on the dangers and threats associated with cyberspace.

2. Pooling resources and creating synergies amongst govt, corporates, stakeholders, professionals and interest groups is required.

3. There has to be a realisation that strategic paradigm shifts need strategic handling that goes beyond mere purchase of tools and equipment.

4. Instead it needs a robust cyber defence strategy with systemic education and awareness that covers every stakeholder in the ecosystem.

PS: The 9/11 attacks have cost the US $3 trillion till date. Also 7-8,000 of its troops have lost their lives fighting terrorists across the globe.