Worldwide PC Shipments to Grow 14 Percent in 2010, Gartner

Worldwide PC shipments are on pace to total 352.4 million units in 2010, a 14.3 percent increase from 2009, according to the latest preliminary forecast by Gartner. These projections are down from Gartner's previous PC shipment forecast in September of 17.9 percent growth. 2011 worldwide PC shipments are forecast to reach 409 million units, a 15.9 percent increase from 2010. This is down from Gartner's earlier estimate of 18.1 percent growth for 2011.

While Gartner does not regard the current dynamics in the PC market quite yet as an inflexion point, analysts do see many disruptive forces coming together that will weaken the market moving forward. 

In the near term, many consumers and businesses will continue to refrain from buying PCs, as they collectively rebuild their finances in the face of slower income growth, weaker employment gains and a cloudy economic outlook. Over the longer-term, users are likely to slow PC replacements and extend PC lifetimes as they turn to other devices as their primary computing platform.

Gartner analysts said there are five dynamics that are challenging the PC industry:Emerging Markets Continue to Drive Growth, Consumer Wallet Continues to Shrink, Challenge of Emerging Devices, Extended Life Cycle Impact and Uptake of Thin Clients.

While we expect a continued upside in our emerging market forecast, leading to emerging markets gaining more than 50 percent of the total worldwide PC market by the end of 2011, mature markets will face mounting challenges. Furthermore, in emerging markets, there is good chance that consumers will simply leap frog PCs and move directly to alternative devices in the coming years rather than following the traditional pattern of purchasing a PC as their first computing device.

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