Beyond the millenium

O size="3">ne question that I am asked frequently by PCQ readers as well as my friends and

colleagues in India and the US is–what after the Year 2000? I tend to answer back

objectively–well, there will be the year 2001 of course! Usually, people think I am

trying to be funny.

The reference, of course,

is to IT jobs, specially so in the US. Will IT continue to remain a lucrative career

option in the months and years to come? Let me admit, it’s a difficult question to

face since it involves looking into the future; treacherous ground to be treading on even

when you are well equipped with facts, and in my case I am not. However, it is a

legitimate question because it concerns a lot of young talent in the country.

alt="sequel.jpg (18346 bytes)" align="left" hspace="10" vspace="10">W size="3">hen people have such doubts or questions they yearn for straight Yes or No

answers. After all, it is an opinion that they are seeking. I have been brash before, so

here is my answer–Yes! IT will continue to remain a lucrative career option even

after the turn of the century, and indeed well into the next century. My opinion is based

on empirical evidence from the past growth in IT, the increasing dependence of society on

IT, specially here in the US, and because my experience and gut feel tell me that there is

still a long road ahead before we are at the top of the IT plateau.

The growth in the IT

industry started in the early eighties and picked up momentum right into the early

nineties–times when there was no Y2k problem. The growth was, and continues to be,

fuelled by a tremendous potential for IT applications to help us better manage our

resources. It had nothing to do with Y2k till recently, and will have nothing to do with

it after the year 2000. Perhaps, a macro look will help us get a better perspective.

Till the early seventies

industrial growth and scientific breakthroughs fuelled economic growth. That was an era

when the world learnt, through technological advances, to harness its existing resources.

Breakthroughs in nuclear, agricultural, space, and semiconductor sciences allowed us to

get more food and energy and improved communications. Since then, as scientific

breakthroughs have slowed down, there has been a paradigm shift to better management of

our existing resources. IT gives us tools that enable us to do just this. (Like any other

tool, IT is abused as much as used, but I will dwell on that in a later episode.)

While there is no denying

the opportunity presented by the Y2k problem to Indian industry and developers, I am

inclined to believe that Y2k was a hiccup in the logical growth of IT, a sort of show

stopper that took both the focus off the real challenges ahead as well as huge chunks from

corporate IT budgets. Once out of the way in the year 2001, the growth in IT could well

accelerate.

There is another way of

looking at the Y2k opportunity that I feel puts it in better perspective. Operational

applications require maintenance to keep them in tune with the changes in the business

environment. The Y2k opportunity arose from a change that many applications required at

the same time, and the need for which arose more from bungling then changes in business

environment. Once Y2k problem is through, business will focus on more productive

maintenance to enhancing and adapting their applications. Like I said, Y2k is a temporary

diversion of focus and IT budgets.

The US leads the world in

its dependence on IT. It is a country that is rich in resources and has the highest per

capita consumption of just about everything that is good in life. It desperately leans on

IT to continually increase productivity and meet the needs of its populace. Its dependence

on IT in everyday life varies from smart (e-commerce, record keeping, and electronic form

filing) through dubious (customer relations and sales), to pathetic (Internet porn, dating

and chat) applications. What is relevant to us is that this dependence is increasing by

the day. There can be any looking back. Remember the US just leads the world, the rest of

the world eventually will follow as and when it has the same resources. (Doesn’t

sound too good from the Indian perspective, I know.

Given the fact that IT has

a definite role to play in helping us optimally use our resources, and that society is

increasingly depending on IT to increase productivity, it would be logical to assume that

growth in IT jobs will diminish only when optimization plateaus. Quite clearly that is a

distant goal that we don’t even see yet. Hardware technology, in terms of MIPS and

clock cycles, as well as software technology, in terms of layered intelligence, will have

to peak before growth in IT begins to even slow down. Both seem a long time from

happening. What that means is that we are still building systems with imperfect

technology. That is analogous to building cities with mud instead of reinforced concrete.

It is just a matter of time before we have to pull them down.

There is one aspect of the IT growth ahead

that I would like to caution readers about. Y2k was easy money. We got paid handsomely for

the low grade IT labor. The road ahead will be more challenging. The opportunity will be

there but will not come our way easily. I would say, if you have a passion for IT, get

into it and I don’t think you will ever need to look back. On the other hand, if your

only interest in IT is to get a ticket to the US, be warned it is not going to be easy.

The US welcomes talent and even labor, only when it needs it. In the years ahead it is

going to need IT talent for sure, but IT labor, maybe not.