The unthinkable: Could Google Search monopoly end? How will Google fight back?

I started using the Internet extensively in 1996. It was tough making sense of the at that time seemingly endless realm that had been presented before us. Yahoo! was an established giant. It looked likely to dominate every aspect of the Net, from search to chats to groups to business solutions.

Google Search was launched in 1998 and by the early 2000s had captured the global mind space. The search was quick and effective. Everyone liked it. Google became a verb. The best part was that their fortune earner Google Ads (earlier called AdWords) was seamlessly integrated into search without being much of a nuisance. Google was a much loved and reliable company, not only successful.

With the passage of time, the quality of search deteriorated. One couldn’t find exactly what one was searching for, even sometimes in the first few search pages, something unheard of in the past. For example, one very small thing. I have put up all my articles from the 1990s and with pinpoint search I could get all my articles on the top half of the first page. Now I struggle to search for any of my old stories.

There was also a certain amount of bias that set in. Business? Political? Ideological? Strategic? Left leaning? It is difficult to define, but it spoils the experience anyway. I am not the only one saying that. There is a political divide in the world which is getting wider, and Google Search seems to be one side of it rather than the centre. This was one of the grouses, rightly or wrongly, that US President Donald Trump had with the likes of Google and Silicon Valley a few years back.

The smartphone era

There is no doubt that Google ruled the desktop and laptop eras. Even during the early mobile era simply because there was limited mobile search. But the smartphone era has changed that. Now in India when you to search for a restaurant you go to a Zomato or Swiggy for groceries. We have indigenous apps like MakeMyTrip, Ola and Namma Yatri. Post-pandemic there’s an Indian app for almost everything. If in the desktop-laptop eras, it was all about US software, in the smartphone era it is all about Indian apps. Indian startups dominate the Indian smartphone. The relevance of Google Search is diminishing in this area.

The AI search era

The next game changer is even bigger: AI. This is where Google no longer has the market share or first mover advantage. AI search is changing all the time. All the Big Tech companies are trying to help themselves to a piece to the new pie and it is quite difficult to predict how the AI search market will look like in 2026. While Google has Gemini, ChatGPT is still the darling. Microsoft Copilot is being pushed while Perplexity AI is a rising star.

The government wall

Most governments in the world don’t want to be in the clutches of US Big Tech. China has its own firewall while Russia is looking to a closed Internet. The EU has been battling Silicon Valley for ages. It is only a matter of time before countries like India form their own reliable Internet ecosystem suitable for their own country and not others. India sure has the talent and will to do so. Why should Indian government employees have to use US and Chinese tech apps which could be compromised?

Monopolies don’t last that long in the new age. Just look at Internet Explorer, Orkut (just India), Hotmail and Blackberry. Yahoo! is nowhere in the 2020s. Nokia smartphone is a pale shadow of its former self. All were tech darlings till they suddenly fell our shut down.

Google will fight back

Of course, Google is fighting back and will put up a good defence in the years to come. Their Gemini, Google AI Mode, Google Web Guide is just the beginning. They also have precious data and algorithms of the last couple of decades not just with Search, but Maps and even YouTube. They have the war chest, talent and drive.

One thing is sure is that the average consumer will be spoilt for choice in the years to come.