Kaspersky Lab's Security Forecasts 2014

Kaspersky Lab's experts have made their predictions about 2014. Not surprisingly, much of what they have seen in their crystal balls is connected to the fall-out from Edward Snowden's revelations.

End user forecast

Cybercriminals will target...

- your privacy

After the Snowden scandal of 2013, people are determined to keep their private life under wraps despite the attentions of intelligence agencies around the world. That means protecting the information stored on their computers and devices and ensuring their online behavior remains confidential. This will lead to greater popularity for VPN services and Tor-anonymizers as well as increased demand for local encryption tools.

- your money

In 2014, Kaspersky Lab's experts expect cybercriminals to continue developing tools to steal cash - directly or indirectly. To plunder pockets directly, the fraudsters will further refine their tools designed to access the bank accounts of mobile device owners (mobile phishing, banking Trojans). Mobile botnets will be bought and sold and will also be used to distribute malicious attachments on behalf of third parties. To support indirect thefts, it is likely that we will see more sophisticated versions of the Trojans which encrypt the data on mobile devices, preventing access to photos, contacts and correspondence until a decryption fee is handed over. Android-based smartphones will no doubt be the first to be targeted.

- your Bitcoins

In 2014 Kaspersky Lab's experts expect considerable growth in the number of attacks targeting Bitcoin users' wallets, Bitcoin pools and stock exchanges. Find out how to keep your Bitcoins safe here.

Business forecast

- for Internet service providers

A number of popular Internet services have already announced the implementation of additional measures to protect user data, for example, encryption of all data transmitted between their own servers. Implementing more sophisticated protection measures will continue, and is likely to become a key factor when users choose between rival web services.

- for cloud storage providers

Hackers are targeting cloud service employees, seeing them as the weakest link in the security chain. A successful attack here could hand cybercriminals the keys to huge volumes of data. In addition to data theft attackers may be interested in deleting or modifying information - in some cases manipulated misinformation could be worth even more to those who commission the attacks. This is an on-going trend.

- for software developers

The theft of popular product sources (gaming industry, mobile apps developers, etc) gives attackers an excellent opportunity to find vulnerabilities in the products and then to use them for their own fraudulent purposes. In addition, if cybercriminals have access to the victim's repositories, they can modify the program source code and embed backdoors into it.

- for rivals

Snowden's leaks have demonstrated that one of the goals of cyber espionage between states is to provide economic aid to "friendly" companies. This factor has broken down ethical barriers which initially restrained business from using unconventional methods to compete with their rivals. In the new realities of cyberspace, businesses are contemplating the possibility of conducting this kind of activity for themselves. Companies will employ cyber-mercenaries, organized groups of qualified hackers who can offer bespoke cyber-espionage services.

The World Wide Web forecast

"The Internet has begun to break up into national segments. Snowden's revelations have intensified the demand for rules prohibiting the use of foreign services. Individual countries are no longer willing to let a single byte of information out of their networks. These aspirations will grow ever stronger and legislative restrictions will inevitably transform into technical prohibitions. The next step will most likely be attempts to limit foreign access to data inside a country. As this trend develops further it may lead at some point to the collapse of the current Internet, which will break into dozens of national networks. The shadowy Darknet then will be the only truly world-wide web", says Alexander Gostev, Chief Security Expert, Global Research & Analysis Team.

Several countries have adopted or are planning to adopt legislation prohibiting the use of foreign services. In November, Germany announced that all communications between the German authorities would be fully locked within the country. Brazil has announced its plans to build an alternative Internet channel so as not to use the one that goes through Florida (USA).

The full report is available on securelist.com.